The second quarter of 2010 has given equity investors quite a bumpy ride. Investors
have become skittish, running away from controversy. Market leadership has
narrowed due to a lack of investor conviction. We believe that investor skittishness is
overdone, the market is attractively valued, and individual stock selection based on
earnings and cash flow should be rewarded.
Macroeconomic and government regulation/investigation/taxation fears have driven
equity valuations down to very attractive levels. Bond yields have also been driven
down in the de-risking process to levels that we believe are bordering on irrational.
Despite recent economic data pointing to the potential for a "Soft Patch", economic
data are still in a longer term uptrend.
We have identified a group of stocks that should benefit from product cycles,
emerging market economic growth, and/or commodity price inflation and trade at
attractive valuations. Since operating leverage has begun to plateau, earnings
estimate revisions will increasingly be dependent on sales growth. Our process is
deeply focused on top line revenue growth, with a particular bias for organic revenue
growth. Within the context of the macro and geopolitical environment we find
ourselves in, we look for upside to the consensus revenue estimates driven by
productive R&D (Research & Development) efforts in adjacent markets, product line
expansions, or geographic expansions of proven products.
The effect of a weaker Euro and slowing economic activity throughout the Euro zone
on the profitability of US companies is containable. Many of the companies actively
hedge their currency exposure. Most have natural hedges.
In the last week of June, the Russell 1000 Growth Index ("RLG") has experienced
some significant changes to the sector weightings. We took no actions as a result of
these sector weight changes. In fact, these sector weight changes by the index
moved the index closer to our weightings in almost every case.
As a result of these moves, we have 46 names in the portfolio and the Beta of the
portfolio, relative to the Russell 1000 Growth, has increased to 1.27. The top ten
names represent 38.2% of the portfolio.
We are staying the course, remaining true to our investment style and process.
We are positioned for a significant valuation rebound as sentiment regarding
economic activity, government legislation/regulation, and the earnings prospects
for our stocks improves.
Thank you for your continuing support.
Fund holdings and sector allocations are subject to change and should not
be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any security. For the funds
most recent list of top ten holdings, please click here.
The Russell
1000 Growth Index is an unmanaged index that measures the performance of those
Russell 1000 companies with higher price-to-book ratios and higher forecasted
growth values. You cannot invest directly in an index.
Beta is a measure of the portfolios sensitivity to the market.
Mutual fund investing involves risk. Principal loss is possible. The Fund may concentrate its assets in fewer holdings which will expose it to increased individual stock volatility. The Fund may also purchase foreign securities or use derivatives, which involve additional risks. Please refer to the prospectus for details.The Quarterly Fund Commentary represents the opinion of Keystone Management and is not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice.